A new indicator of coalition size: Tests against standard regime-type indicators

Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, Alastair Smith

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review


    Objective: We develop a new measure for selectorate's theory central concept, winning coalition size, using indicators developed by the V-Dem project. Methods: To demonstrate the measure's efficacy, we examine its ability to account for government provision of public and private goods, a central prediction in selection theory. The winning coalition measure is compared to eight widely used indicators of regime type in analyses of 30 measures of government policy provision. Results: Based on Vuong tests and Akaike information criteria, the new measure generally outperforms the alternative regime measures whether the assessment is across all regimes, within nondemocratic regimes or within democratic settings. Conclusion: The new indicator provides an improved tool for testing the nuances of selectorate theory.

    Original languageEnglish (US)
    Pages (from-to)365-379
    Number of pages15
    JournalSocial Science Quarterly
    Issue number2
    StatePublished - Mar 2022

    ASJC Scopus subject areas

    • General Social Sciences


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