TY - JOUR
T1 - A picture of stock-flow unemployment in the United Kingdom
AU - Coles, Melvyn G.
AU - Jones, Paul
AU - Smith, Eric
N1 - Funding Information:
The authors thank the Leverhulme Trust for financial support. This paper has benefited from the many suggestions of participants at seminars at the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Carlos III, Georgetown University, George Washington University, Pennsylvania State University, Rutgers University, the U.K. Department of Work and Pensions, the University of Kentucky, Vanderbilt University, Williams College, and the Society of Economic Dynamics and the University of Essex Economics and Music conferences. The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta or the Federal Reserve System. All errors are our responsibility. Address correspondence to: Eric Smith, Department of Economics, University of Essex, Wivenhoe Park, Colchester, Essex, CO4 3SQ, UK; e-mail: [email protected].
PY - 2010/9
Y1 - 2010/9
N2 - Stock-flow job matching implies that there are two types of job seekersthose on the short side of their occupations who can easily find work, and those on the long side who expect extended unemployment spells. Using matching data and information on completed and uncompleted unemployment spells for England and Wales, this paper uses the stock-flow matching hypothesis to identify the fraction (incidence) of laid off workers who find themselves on the long side of the market and, conditional on being on the long side, their expected unemployment duration. The average incidence is around one-half and increases significantly in recessions. The expected duration is also strongly countercyclicalpeaking at 15 months in the 1990-1992 recession and falling to a more modest 9 months by January 1999. Cross-section estimates also identify a North-South divide and a large city effectthe unemployed in large cities and in the North experience longer spells.
AB - Stock-flow job matching implies that there are two types of job seekersthose on the short side of their occupations who can easily find work, and those on the long side who expect extended unemployment spells. Using matching data and information on completed and uncompleted unemployment spells for England and Wales, this paper uses the stock-flow matching hypothesis to identify the fraction (incidence) of laid off workers who find themselves on the long side of the market and, conditional on being on the long side, their expected unemployment duration. The average incidence is around one-half and increases significantly in recessions. The expected duration is also strongly countercyclicalpeaking at 15 months in the 1990-1992 recession and falling to a more modest 9 months by January 1999. Cross-section estimates also identify a North-South divide and a large city effectthe unemployed in large cities and in the North experience longer spells.
KW - Stock-Flow Matching
KW - Unemployment Duration
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=79451468779&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=79451468779&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1017/S1365100509090361
DO - 10.1017/S1365100509090361
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:79451468779
SN - 1365-1005
VL - 14
SP - 427
EP - 453
JO - Macroeconomic Dynamics
JF - Macroeconomic Dynamics
IS - 4
ER -