An advanced orbital spacecraft cost model

Lee Fischman, Mike Kimel, Troy Masters, David J. Pine

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Abstract

A model is needed for estimating the costs of orbital spacecraft lying 10-15 years, or more, into the future. Such a model likely could not anticipate the nature of changes in technology and system configurations over this time span. We therefore chose to focus on macroscopic trends, using a short list of high level technical and performance variables obtained for a great many past missions. A number of modeling approaches were evaluated. To gauge models' predictive accuracy, while by necessity calibrating them on past data, they were tested on missions lying as far into the future as practical. We found several approaches that could usually estimate within about 50% of actual final cost with no apparent degradation over time.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Title of host publication2008 IEEE Aerospace Conference, AC
DOIs
StatePublished - 2008
Event2008 IEEE Aerospace Conference, AC - Big Sky, MT, United States
Duration: Mar 1 2008Mar 8 2008

Publication series

NameIEEE Aerospace Conference Proceedings
ISSN (Print)1095-323X

Conference

Conference2008 IEEE Aerospace Conference, AC
CountryUnited States
CityBig Sky, MT
Period3/1/083/8/08

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Aerospace Engineering
  • Space and Planetary Science

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    Fischman, L., Kimel, M., Masters, T., & Pine, D. J. (2008). An advanced orbital spacecraft cost model. In 2008 IEEE Aerospace Conference, AC [4526691] (IEEE Aerospace Conference Proceedings). https://doi.org/10.1109/AERO.2008.4526691