TY - JOUR
T1 - Anticipating critical transitions
AU - Scheffer, Marten
AU - Carpenter, Stephen R.
AU - Lenton, Timothy M.
AU - Bascompte, Jordi
AU - Brock, William
AU - Dakos, Vasilis
AU - Van De Koppel, Johan
AU - Van De Leemput, Ingrid A.
AU - Levin, Simon A.
AU - Van Nes, Egbert H.
AU - Pascual, Mercedes
AU - Vandermeer, John
PY - 2012/10/19
Y1 - 2012/10/19
N2 - Tipping points in complex systems may imply risks of unwanted collapse, but also opportunities for positive change. Our capacity to navigate such risks and opportunities can be boosted by combining emerging insights from two unconnected fields of research. One line of work is revealing fundamental architectural features that may cause ecological networks, financial markets, and other complex systems to have tipping points. Another field of research is uncovering generic empirical indicators of the proximity to such critical thresholds. Although sudden shifts in complex systems will inevitably continue to surprise us, work at the crossroads of these emerging fields offers new approaches for anticipating critical transitions.
AB - Tipping points in complex systems may imply risks of unwanted collapse, but also opportunities for positive change. Our capacity to navigate such risks and opportunities can be boosted by combining emerging insights from two unconnected fields of research. One line of work is revealing fundamental architectural features that may cause ecological networks, financial markets, and other complex systems to have tipping points. Another field of research is uncovering generic empirical indicators of the proximity to such critical thresholds. Although sudden shifts in complex systems will inevitably continue to surprise us, work at the crossroads of these emerging fields offers new approaches for anticipating critical transitions.
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U2 - 10.1126/science.1225244
DO - 10.1126/science.1225244
M3 - Review article
AN - SCOPUS:84867655665
SN - 0036-8075
VL - 338
SP - 344
EP - 348
JO - Science
JF - Science
IS - 6105
ER -