Assessing the dispute in the South China Sea: a model of China's security decision making

S. S.G. Wu, B. Bueno De Mesquita

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review


    Chinese foreign policy is represented as a function of internal, domestic political considerations. Through the analysis of Chinese policy, we illustrate a method for predicting the outcome of policy decision making inside China. The substantive issue is China's expected approach toward territorial disputes in the South China Sea, especially surrounding the Spratly Islands. We address the extent to which China can be expected to reallocate resources from economic reform to foreign policy undertakings in that area and how likely China is to utilize force to impose its will on weaker neighbors. We assume that decision makers seek an optimal compromise between enhancing their security and pursuing their specific policy or ideological goals. Using this perspective, we conclude that China is unlikely to engage in any significant uses of force to pursue its agenda in the South China Sea. -from Authors

    Original languageEnglish (US)
    Pages (from-to)379-403
    Number of pages25
    JournalInternational Studies Quarterly
    Issue number3
    StatePublished - 1994

    ASJC Scopus subject areas

    • Sociology and Political Science
    • Political Science and International Relations


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