Causal mediation in developmental science: A primer

Mediation has played a critical role in developmental theory and research. Yet, developmentalists rarely discuss the methodological challenges of establishing causality in mediation analysis or potential strategies to improve the identification of causal mediation effects. In this article, we discuss the potential outcomes framework from statistics as a means for highlighting several fundamental challenges of establishing causality in mediation analysis, including the difficulty of meeting the key assumption of sequential ignorability, even in experimental studies. We argue that this framework—which, although commonplace in other fields, has not yet been taken up in developmental science—can inform solutions to these challenges. Based on the framework, we offer a series of recommendations for improving causal inference in mediation analysis, including an overview of best practices in both study design and analysis, as well as resources for conducting analysis. In doing so, our overall objective in this article is to support the use of rigorous methods for understanding questions of mechanism in developmental science.