Centennial response of Greenland’s three largest outlet glaciers

Shfaqat A. Khan; Anders A. Bjørk; Jonathan L. Bamber; Mathieu Morlighem; Michael Bevis; Kurt H. Kjær; Jérémie Mouginot; Anja Løkkegaard; David M. Holland; Andy Aschwanden; Bao Zhang; Veit Helm; Niels J. Korsgaard; William Colgan; Nicolaj K. Larsen; Lin Liu; Karina Hansen; Valentina Barletta; Trine S. Dahl-Jensen; Anne Sofie Søndergaard; Beata M. Csatho; Ingo Sasgen; Jason Box; Toni Schenk

doi:10.1038/s41467-020-19580-5

Centennial response of Greenland’s three largest outlet glaciers

Shfaqat A. Khan, Anders A. Bjørk, Jonathan L. Bamber, Mathieu Morlighem, Michael Bevis, Kurt H. Kjær, Jérémie Mouginot, Anja Løkkegaard, David M. Holland, Andy Aschwanden, Bao Zhang, Veit Helm, Niels J. Korsgaard, William Colgan, Nicolaj K. Larsen, Lin Liu, Karina Hansen, Valentina Barletta, Trine S. Dahl-Jensen, Anne Sofie SøndergaardBeata M. Csatho, Ingo Sasgen, Jason Box, Toni Schenk

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Abstract

The Greenland Ice Sheet is the largest land ice contributor to sea level rise. This will continue in the future but at an uncertain rate and observational estimates are limited to the last few decades. Understanding the long-term glacier response to external forcing is key to improving projections. Here we use historical photographs to calculate ice loss from 1880–2012 for Jakobshavn, Helheim, and Kangerlussuaq glacier. We estimate ice loss corresponding to a sea level rise of 8.1 ± 1.1 millimetres from these three glaciers. Projections of mass loss for these glaciers, using the worst-case scenario, Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5, suggest a sea level contribution of 9.1–14.9 mm by 2100. RCP8.5 implies an additional global temperature increase of 3.7 °C by 2100, approximately four times larger than that which has taken place since 1880. We infer that projections forced by RCP8.5 underestimate glacier mass loss which could exceed this worst-case scenario.

Original language	English (US)
Article number	5718
Journal	Nature communications
Volume	11
Issue number	1
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-19580-5
State	Published - Dec 2020

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Chemistry(all)
Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology(all)
Physics and Astronomy(all)

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Khan, S. A., Bjørk, A. A., Bamber, J. L., Morlighem, M., Bevis, M., Kjær, K. H., Mouginot, J., Løkkegaard, A., Holland, D. M., Aschwanden, A., Zhang, B., Helm, V., Korsgaard, N. J., Colgan, W., Larsen, N. K., Liu, L., Hansen, K., Barletta, V., Dahl-Jensen, T. S., ... Schenk, T. (2020). Centennial response of Greenland’s three largest outlet glaciers. Nature communications, 11(1), Article 5718. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-19580-5

Khan, SA, Bjørk, AA, Bamber, JL, Morlighem, M, Bevis, M, Kjær, KH, Mouginot, J, Løkkegaard, A, Holland, DM, Aschwanden, A, Zhang, B, Helm, V, Korsgaard, NJ, Colgan, W, Larsen, NK, Liu, L, Hansen, K, Barletta, V, Dahl-Jensen, TS, Søndergaard, AS, Csatho, BM, Sasgen, I, Box, J & Schenk, T 2020, 'Centennial response of Greenland’s three largest outlet glaciers', Nature communications, vol. 11, no. 1, 5718. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-19580-5

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abstract = "The Greenland Ice Sheet is the largest land ice contributor to sea level rise. This will continue in the future but at an uncertain rate and observational estimates are limited to the last few decades. Understanding the long-term glacier response to external forcing is key to improving projections. Here we use historical photographs to calculate ice loss from 1880–2012 for Jakobshavn, Helheim, and Kangerlussuaq glacier. We estimate ice loss corresponding to a sea level rise of 8.1 ± 1.1 millimetres from these three glaciers. Projections of mass loss for these glaciers, using the worst-case scenario, Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5, suggest a sea level contribution of 9.1–14.9 mm by 2100. RCP8.5 implies an additional global temperature increase of 3.7 °C by 2100, approximately four times larger than that which has taken place since 1880. We infer that projections forced by RCP8.5 underestimate glacier mass loss which could exceed this worst-case scenario.",

author = "Khan, {Shfaqat A.} and Bj{\o}rk, {Anders A.} and Bamber, {Jonathan L.} and Mathieu Morlighem and Michael Bevis and Kj{\ae}r, {Kurt H.} and J{\'e}r{\'e}mie Mouginot and Anja L{\o}kkegaard and Holland, {David M.} and Andy Aschwanden and Bao Zhang and Veit Helm and Korsgaard, {Niels J.} and William Colgan and Larsen, {Nicolaj K.} and Lin Liu and Karina Hansen and Valentina Barletta and Dahl-Jensen, {Trine S.} and S{\o}ndergaard, {Anne Sofie} and Csatho, {Beata M.} and Ingo Sasgen and Jason Box and Toni Schenk",

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AU - Khan, Shfaqat A.

AU - Bjørk, Anders A.

AU - Bamber, Jonathan L.

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AU - Bevis, Michael

AU - Kjær, Kurt H.

AU - Mouginot, Jérémie

AU - Løkkegaard, Anja

AU - Holland, David M.

AU - Aschwanden, Andy

AU - Zhang, Bao

AU - Helm, Veit

AU - Korsgaard, Niels J.

AU - Colgan, William

AU - Larsen, Nicolaj K.

AU - Liu, Lin

AU - Hansen, Karina

AU - Barletta, Valentina

AU - Dahl-Jensen, Trine S.

AU - Søndergaard, Anne Sofie

AU - Csatho, Beata M.

AU - Sasgen, Ingo

AU - Box, Jason

AU - Schenk, Toni

PY - 2020/12

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N2 - The Greenland Ice Sheet is the largest land ice contributor to sea level rise. This will continue in the future but at an uncertain rate and observational estimates are limited to the last few decades. Understanding the long-term glacier response to external forcing is key to improving projections. Here we use historical photographs to calculate ice loss from 1880–2012 for Jakobshavn, Helheim, and Kangerlussuaq glacier. We estimate ice loss corresponding to a sea level rise of 8.1 ± 1.1 millimetres from these three glaciers. Projections of mass loss for these glaciers, using the worst-case scenario, Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5, suggest a sea level contribution of 9.1–14.9 mm by 2100. RCP8.5 implies an additional global temperature increase of 3.7 °C by 2100, approximately four times larger than that which has taken place since 1880. We infer that projections forced by RCP8.5 underestimate glacier mass loss which could exceed this worst-case scenario.

AB - The Greenland Ice Sheet is the largest land ice contributor to sea level rise. This will continue in the future but at an uncertain rate and observational estimates are limited to the last few decades. Understanding the long-term glacier response to external forcing is key to improving projections. Here we use historical photographs to calculate ice loss from 1880–2012 for Jakobshavn, Helheim, and Kangerlussuaq glacier. We estimate ice loss corresponding to a sea level rise of 8.1 ± 1.1 millimetres from these three glaciers. Projections of mass loss for these glaciers, using the worst-case scenario, Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5, suggest a sea level contribution of 9.1–14.9 mm by 2100. RCP8.5 implies an additional global temperature increase of 3.7 °C by 2100, approximately four times larger than that which has taken place since 1880. We infer that projections forced by RCP8.5 underestimate glacier mass loss which could exceed this worst-case scenario.

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Centennial response of Greenland’s three largest outlet glaciers

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