Centennial response of Greenland’s three largest outlet glaciers

Shfaqat A. Khan; Anders A. Bjørk; Jonathan L. Bamber; Mathieu Morlighem; Michael Bevis; Kurt H. Kjær; Jérémie Mouginot; Anja Løkkegaard; David M. Holland; Andy Aschwanden; Bao Zhang; Veit Helm; Niels J. Korsgaard; William Colgan; Nicolaj K. Larsen; Lin Liu; Karina Hansen; Valentina Barletta; Trine S. Dahl-Jensen; Anne Sofie Søndergaard; Beata M. Csatho; Ingo Sasgen; Jason Box; Toni Schenk

doi:10.1038/s41467-020-19580-5

Centennial response of Greenland’s three largest outlet glaciers

Shfaqat A. Khan, Anders A. Bjørk, Jonathan L. Bamber, Mathieu Morlighem, Michael Bevis, Kurt H. Kjær, Jérémie Mouginot, Anja Løkkegaard, David M. Holland, Andy Aschwanden, Bao Zhang, Veit Helm, Niels J. Korsgaard, William Colgan, Nicolaj K. Larsen, Lin Liu, Karina Hansen, Valentina Barletta, Trine S. Dahl-Jensen, Anne Sofie SøndergaardBeata M. Csatho, Ingo Sasgen, Jason Box, Toni Schenk

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Abstract

The Greenland Ice Sheet is the largest land ice contributor to sea level rise. This will continue in the future but at an uncertain rate and observational estimates are limited to the last few decades. Understanding the long-term glacier response to external forcing is key to improving projections. Here we use historical photographs to calculate ice loss from 1880–2012 for Jakobshavn, Helheim, and Kangerlussuaq glacier. We estimate ice loss corresponding to a sea level rise of 8.1 ± 1.1 millimetres from these three glaciers. Projections of mass loss for these glaciers, using the worst-case scenario, Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5, suggest a sea level contribution of 9.1–14.9 mm by 2100. RCP8.5 implies an additional global temperature increase of 3.7 °C by 2100, approximately four times larger than that which has taken place since 1880. We infer that projections forced by RCP8.5 underestimate glacier mass loss which could exceed this worst-case scenario.

Original language	English (US)
Article number	5718
Journal	Nature communications
Volume	11
Issue number	1
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-19580-5
State	Published - Dec 2020

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Chemistry(all)
Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology(all)
Physics and Astronomy(all)

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10.1038/s41467-020-19580-5

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Khan, S. A., Bjørk, A. A., Bamber, J. L., Morlighem, M., Bevis, M., Kjær, K. H., Mouginot, J., Løkkegaard, A., Holland, D. M., Aschwanden, A., Zhang, B., Helm, V., Korsgaard, N. J., Colgan, W., Larsen, N. K., Liu, L., Hansen, K., Barletta, V., Dahl-Jensen, T. S., ... Schenk, T. (2020). Centennial response of Greenland’s three largest outlet glaciers. Nature communications, 11(1), [5718]. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-19580-5

Khan, SA, Bjørk, AA, Bamber, JL, Morlighem, M, Bevis, M, Kjær, KH, Mouginot, J, Løkkegaard, A, Holland, DM, Aschwanden, A, Zhang, B, Helm, V, Korsgaard, NJ, Colgan, W, Larsen, NK, Liu, L, Hansen, K, Barletta, V, Dahl-Jensen, TS, Søndergaard, AS, Csatho, BM, Sasgen, I, Box, J & Schenk, T 2020, 'Centennial response of Greenland’s three largest outlet glaciers', Nature communications, vol. 11, no. 1, 5718. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-19580-5

@article{b442405d904a45b7b99bc8f180d3a709,

title = "Centennial response of Greenland{\textquoteright}s three largest outlet glaciers",

abstract = "The Greenland Ice Sheet is the largest land ice contributor to sea level rise. This will continue in the future but at an uncertain rate and observational estimates are limited to the last few decades. Understanding the long-term glacier response to external forcing is key to improving projections. Here we use historical photographs to calculate ice loss from 1880–2012 for Jakobshavn, Helheim, and Kangerlussuaq glacier. We estimate ice loss corresponding to a sea level rise of 8.1 ± 1.1 millimetres from these three glaciers. Projections of mass loss for these glaciers, using the worst-case scenario, Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5, suggest a sea level contribution of 9.1–14.9 mm by 2100. RCP8.5 implies an additional global temperature increase of 3.7 °C by 2100, approximately four times larger than that which has taken place since 1880. We infer that projections forced by RCP8.5 underestimate glacier mass loss which could exceed this worst-case scenario.",

author = "Khan, {Shfaqat A.} and Bj{\o}rk, {Anders A.} and Bamber, {Jonathan L.} and Mathieu Morlighem and Michael Bevis and Kj{\ae}r, {Kurt H.} and J{\'e}r{\'e}mie Mouginot and Anja L{\o}kkegaard and Holland, {David M.} and Andy Aschwanden and Bao Zhang and Veit Helm and Korsgaard, {Niels J.} and William Colgan and Larsen, {Nicolaj K.} and Lin Liu and Karina Hansen and Valentina Barletta and Dahl-Jensen, {Trine S.} and S{\o}ndergaard, {Anne Sofie} and Csatho, {Beata M.} and Ingo Sasgen and Jason Box and Toni Schenk",

note = "Funding Information: S.A.K. acknowledge support from the Danish Council for Independent Research. J.L.B. acknowledges support from European Research Council grant number 694188 (Glo-balMass). J.M. acknowledges support from the French National Research Agency (ANR) grant (ANR-19-CE01-0011-01). Z.B. acknowledges support from the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (2019T120687) and the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (2042020kf0009). I.S. acknowledges funding by the Helmholtz Climate Initiative REKLIM (Regional Climate Change), a joint research project of the Helmholtz Association of German Research Centres (HGF). A.A. acknowledge support from NASA grant NNX17AG65G and NSF grant PLR-1603799. D.M.H. acknowledges support from grant G1204 of NYU Abu Dhabi{\textquoteright}s Center for global Sea Level Change and NSF grant ARC-1304137. N.K.L. acknowledges support from Villum Foundation (grant no. 023440). A.A.B. was funded by the Carlsberg Foundation (Grant CF17‐0529). W.C. and A.L. acknowledges support from Danish Council for Independent Research (grant no. 8049-00003B). B.M.C. acknowledges support from NASA{\textquoteright}s Operation IceBridge and Sea Level Change science team grants, NNX17AI65G and 80NSSC17K0611, respectively. We thank professor Hansheng Wang for providing Load Love numbers and Green{\textquoteright}s functions. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2020, The Author(s).",

year = "2020",

month = dec,

doi = "10.1038/s41467-020-19580-5",

language = "English (US)",

volume = "11",

journal = "Nature Communications",

issn = "2041-1723",

publisher = "Nature Publishing Group",

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T1 - Centennial response of Greenland’s three largest outlet glaciers

AU - Khan, Shfaqat A.

AU - Bjørk, Anders A.

AU - Bamber, Jonathan L.

AU - Morlighem, Mathieu

AU - Bevis, Michael

AU - Kjær, Kurt H.

AU - Mouginot, Jérémie

AU - Løkkegaard, Anja

AU - Holland, David M.

AU - Aschwanden, Andy

AU - Zhang, Bao

AU - Helm, Veit

AU - Korsgaard, Niels J.

AU - Colgan, William

AU - Larsen, Nicolaj K.

AU - Liu, Lin

AU - Hansen, Karina

AU - Barletta, Valentina

AU - Dahl-Jensen, Trine S.

AU - Søndergaard, Anne Sofie

AU - Csatho, Beata M.

AU - Sasgen, Ingo

AU - Box, Jason

AU - Schenk, Toni

N1 - Funding Information: S.A.K. acknowledge support from the Danish Council for Independent Research. J.L.B. acknowledges support from European Research Council grant number 694188 (Glo-balMass). J.M. acknowledges support from the French National Research Agency (ANR) grant (ANR-19-CE01-0011-01). Z.B. acknowledges support from the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (2019T120687) and the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (2042020kf0009). I.S. acknowledges funding by the Helmholtz Climate Initiative REKLIM (Regional Climate Change), a joint research project of the Helmholtz Association of German Research Centres (HGF). A.A. acknowledge support from NASA grant NNX17AG65G and NSF grant PLR-1603799. D.M.H. acknowledges support from grant G1204 of NYU Abu Dhabi’s Center for global Sea Level Change and NSF grant ARC-1304137. N.K.L. acknowledges support from Villum Foundation (grant no. 023440). A.A.B. was funded by the Carlsberg Foundation (Grant CF17‐0529). W.C. and A.L. acknowledges support from Danish Council for Independent Research (grant no. 8049-00003B). B.M.C. acknowledges support from NASA’s Operation IceBridge and Sea Level Change science team grants, NNX17AI65G and 80NSSC17K0611, respectively. We thank professor Hansheng Wang for providing Load Love numbers and Green’s functions. Publisher Copyright: © 2020, The Author(s).

PY - 2020/12

Y1 - 2020/12

N2 - The Greenland Ice Sheet is the largest land ice contributor to sea level rise. This will continue in the future but at an uncertain rate and observational estimates are limited to the last few decades. Understanding the long-term glacier response to external forcing is key to improving projections. Here we use historical photographs to calculate ice loss from 1880–2012 for Jakobshavn, Helheim, and Kangerlussuaq glacier. We estimate ice loss corresponding to a sea level rise of 8.1 ± 1.1 millimetres from these three glaciers. Projections of mass loss for these glaciers, using the worst-case scenario, Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5, suggest a sea level contribution of 9.1–14.9 mm by 2100. RCP8.5 implies an additional global temperature increase of 3.7 °C by 2100, approximately four times larger than that which has taken place since 1880. We infer that projections forced by RCP8.5 underestimate glacier mass loss which could exceed this worst-case scenario.

AB - The Greenland Ice Sheet is the largest land ice contributor to sea level rise. This will continue in the future but at an uncertain rate and observational estimates are limited to the last few decades. Understanding the long-term glacier response to external forcing is key to improving projections. Here we use historical photographs to calculate ice loss from 1880–2012 for Jakobshavn, Helheim, and Kangerlussuaq glacier. We estimate ice loss corresponding to a sea level rise of 8.1 ± 1.1 millimetres from these three glaciers. Projections of mass loss for these glaciers, using the worst-case scenario, Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5, suggest a sea level contribution of 9.1–14.9 mm by 2100. RCP8.5 implies an additional global temperature increase of 3.7 °C by 2100, approximately four times larger than that which has taken place since 1880. We infer that projections forced by RCP8.5 underestimate glacier mass loss which could exceed this worst-case scenario.

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U2 - 10.1038/s41467-020-19580-5

DO - 10.1038/s41467-020-19580-5

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AN - SCOPUS:85096100972

VL - 11

JO - Nature Communications

JF - Nature Communications

SN - 2041-1723

IS - 1

M1 - 5718

ER -

Centennial response of Greenland’s three largest outlet glaciers

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