@article{07905d97b7a54d778a3b4c64dbc7eb30,
title = "Climate Model Uncertainty and Trend Detection in Regional Sea Level Projections: A Review",
abstract = "Projections of future sterodynamic sea level change from global climate models are associated with different sources of uncertainty. From a scientific, societal and policy-making perspective, it is relevant to both understand and reduce uncertainty in projections of climate change. Here, we review recent findings which describe, and shed light on, climate model uncertainty focusing particularly on two types of model uncertainty that contribute to the currently large spread in dynamical sea level patterns (i.e., regional sea level relative to the global mean). These uncertainties are: (1) intermodel uncertainty due to differences in models{\textquoteright} responses in a warming climate and (2) internal model variability due to an individual model{\textquoteright}s own climate variability. On timescales longer than about 50 years from now, anthropogenic sterodynamic (dynamic plus global mean) sea level trends from middle- and high-end forcing scenarios will be larger than internal model variability. By 2100, these anthropogenic trends will also be larger than intermodel uncertainty when global mean thermosteric sea level rise and/or melting contributions from land ice are considered along with dynamic sea level changes. Furthermore, we discuss projections of future coastal sea level from the perspective of global climate models as well as from downscaled efforts based on regional climate models. Much knowledge and understanding has been achieved in the last decade from intermodel experiments and studies of sea level process-based model; here, the prospects for improving coastal sea level and reducing sea level uncertainty are discussed.",
keywords = "Climate model, Climate projections, Regional sea level, Sea level, Time of emergence, Trend detection, Trends, Uncertainty",
author = "Mark Carson and Kewei Lyu and Kristin Richter and M{\'e}lanie Becker and Domingues, {Catia M.} and Weiqing Han and Laure Zanna",
note = "Funding Information: Thanks to the ISSI for hosting the Workshop on Coastal Sea Level from which this paper was conceived and to Xuebin Zhang for his help in producing Fig. 4. And thanks to Chris Little for his comments on an early version of the manuscript. MC was supported in part through the DFG funded CliSAP Excellence Cluster of the University of Hamburg, through the BMBF (Federal Ministry of Education and Science) Project RACE and through a DFG-funded special research effort on regional sea level (SPP1889). KR is funded by the Austrian Science Fund (FP302560). KL is funded by CSHOR, a joint research Centre for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research between QNLM and CSIRO. CMD is supported by Australian Research Council FT130101532 and DP160103130. LZ is funded by the Natural Environment Research Council (NE/R000727/1 and NE/P019218/1) and thanks to Princeton AOS and GFDL visiting faculty program for additional support. MB is supported by the French National Centre for Space Studies (CNES) TOSCA program. Funding Information: Thanks to the ISSI for hosting the Workshop on Coastal Sea Level from which this paper was conceived and to Xuebin Zhang for his help in producing Fig. . And thanks to Chris Little for his comments on an early version of the manuscript. MC was supported in part through the DFG funded CliSAP Excellence Cluster of the University of Hamburg, through the BMBF (Federal Ministry of Education and Science) Project RACE and through a DFG-funded special research effort on regional sea level (SPP1889). KR is funded by the Austrian Science Fund (FP302560). KL is funded by CSHOR, a joint research Centre for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research between QNLM and CSIRO. CMD is supported by Australian Research Council FT130101532 and DP160103130. LZ is funded by the Natural Environment Research Council (NE/R000727/1 and NE/P019218/1) and thanks to Princeton AOS and GFDL visiting faculty program for additional support. MB is supported by the French National Centre for Space Studies (CNES) TOSCA program. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2019, Springer Nature B.V.",
year = "2019",
month = nov,
day = "1",
doi = "10.1007/s10712-019-09559-3",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "40",
pages = "1631--1653",
journal = "Surveys in Geophysics",
issn = "0169-3298",
publisher = "Springer Netherlands",
number = "6",
}