Continuous-Time Discrete-Distribution Theory for Activity-Driven Networks

Lorenzo Zino, Alessandro Rizzo, Maurizio Porfiri

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

Activity-driven networks are a powerful paradigm to study epidemic spreading over time-varying networks. Despite significant advances, most of the current understanding relies on discrete-time computer simulations, in which each node is assigned an activity potential from a continuous distribution. Here, we establish a continuous-time discrete-distribution framework toward an analytical treatment of the epidemic spreading, from its onset to the endemic equilibrium. In the thermodynamic limit, we derive a nonlinear dynamical system to accurately model the epidemic spreading and leverage techniques from the fields of differential inclusions and adaptive estimation to inform short- and long-term predictions. We demonstrate our framework through the analysis of two real-world case studies, exemplifying different physical phenomena and time scales.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Article number228302
JournalPhysical Review Letters
Volume117
Issue number22
DOIs
StatePublished - Nov 23 2016

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Physics and Astronomy(all)

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