Continuous-time system identification of a smoking cessation intervention

Cigarette smoking is a major global public health issue and the leading cause of preventable death in the United States. Toward a goal of designing better smoking cessation treatments, system identification techniques are applied to intervention data to describe smoking cessation as a process of behaviour change. System identification problems that draw from two modelling paradigms in quantitative psychology (statistical mediation and self-regulation) are considered, consisting of a series of continuous-time estimation problems. A continuous-time dynamic modelling approach is employed to describe the response of craving and smoking rates during a quit attempt, as captured in data from a smoking cessation clinical trial. The use of continuous-time models provide benefits of parsimony, ease of interpretation, and the opportunity to work with uneven or missing data.