Cost-effectiveness of population-based screening for chronic kidney disease among the general population and adults with diabetes in China: a modelling study

Background: Despite the majority of patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) live in low- and middle-income countries, most evidence on screening strategies is derived from high-income countries, where the contexts differ significantly. This study aims to assess the cost-effectiveness of population-based CKD screening strategies in both the general population and adults with diabetes in China. Methods: A validated microsimulation model of CKD was developed to evaluate the costs and health consequences of population-based CKD screening strategies from a societal perspective. A cohort of the population aged 45 years in China was simulated over their lifetime. Model parameters were estimated based on the existing literature and various data sources in China. Main outcomes included the averted number of cases with cardiovascular disease (CVD) and kidney failure with replacement therapy (KFRT) under the population-based screening strategy compared with usual care, and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). CKD screening with different frequencies and for different age groups in both the general population and adults with diabetes were considered. One-way sensitivity analyses were performed to assess the robustness of the results. Findings: The ICER of annual screening starting at 45 years of age was $10,588 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) for the general population and $9184 per QALY for adults with diabetes. Other screening strategies were also cost-effective compared to usual care, with ICERs less than three times the per-capita gross domestic product of China ($35,501). The most prominent absolute decrease in lifetime incidence of KFRT and CVD were also observed with the annual screening strategy in both the general population and in adults with diabetes. Specifically, the decreases were 1.88 and 8.55 per 1000 individuals for KFRT, and 35.07 and 19.92 per 1000 individuals for CVD, respectively. Interpretation: CKD screening in both the general population and adults with diabetes is cost-effective and could avert substantial numbers of KFRT and CVD cases in China. Funding: This study was supported by grants from National Natural Science Foundation of China ( 72125009), National Key Research and Development Program of China ( 2022YFF1203001), National High Level Hospital Clinical Research Funding (State Key Laboratory of Vascular Homeostasis and Remodeling, Peking University, 24QZ007), Peking University Medicine Sailing Program for Young Scholars’ Scientific & Technological Innovation ( BMU2023YFJHMX014), Young Elite Scientists Sponsorship Program by CAST ( 2022QNRC001), and CAMS Innovation Fund for Medical Sciences ( 2019-I2M-5–046).