COVID-19 testing, case, and death rates and spatial socio-demographics in New York City: An ecological analysis as of June 2020

Byoungjun Kim, Andrew G. Rundle, Alicia T.Singham Goodwin, Christopher N. Morrison, Charles C. Branas, Wafaa El-Sadr, Dustin T. Duncan

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

We assessed the geographic variation in socio-demographics, mobility, and built environmental factors in relation to COVID-19 testing, case, and death rates in New York City (NYC). COVID-19 rates (as of June 10, 2020), relevant socio-demographic information, and built environment characteristics were aggregated by ZIP Code Tabulation Area (ZCTA). Spatially adjusted multivariable regression models were fitted to account for spatial autocorrelation. The results show that different sets of neighborhood characteristics were independently associated with COVID-19 testing, case, and death rates. For example, the proportions of Blacks and Hispanics in a ZCTA were positively associated with COVID-19 case rate. Contrary to the conventional hypothesis, neighborhoods with low-density housing experienced higher COVID-19 case rates. In addition, demographic changes (e.g. out-migration) during the pandemic may bias the estimates of COVID-19 rates. Future research should further investigate these neighborhood-level factors and their interactions over time to better understand the mechanisms by which they affect COVID-19.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Article number102539
JournalHealth and Place
Volume68
DOIs
StatePublished - Mar 2021

Keywords

  • COVID-19
  • Neighborhood
  • Spatial analysis
  • Spatial demography
  • Spatial epidemiology

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Health(social science)
  • Sociology and Political Science
  • Life-span and Life-course Studies

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