Decision from models: Generalizing probability information to novel tasks

Hang Zhang, Jacienta T. Paily, Laurence T. Maloney

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

We investigate a new type of decision under risk where-to succeed-participants must generalize their experience in one set of tasks to a novel set of tasks. We asked participants to trade distance for reward in a virtual minefield where each successive step incurred the same fixed probability of failure (referred to as hazard). With constant hazard, the probability of success (the survival function) decreases exponentially with path length. On each trial, participants chose between a shorter path with smaller reward and a longer (more dangerous) path with larger reward. They received feedback in 160 training trials: encountering a mine along their chosen path resulted in zero reward and successful completion of the path led to the reward associated with the path chosen. They then completed 600 no-feedback test trials with novel combinations of path length and rewards. To maximize expected gain, participants had to learn the correct exponential model in training and generalize it to the test conditions. We compared how participants discounted reward with increasing path length to the predictions of 9 choice models including the correct exponential model. The choices of a majority of the participants were best accounted for by a model of the correct exponential form although with marked overestimation of the hazard rate. The decision- from-models paradigm differs from experience-based decision paradigms such as decision-from-sampling in the importance assigned to generalizing experience-based information to novel tasks. The task itself is representative of everyday tasks involving repeated decisions in stochastically invariant environments.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)39-53
Number of pages15
JournalDecision
Volume2
Issue number1
DOIs
StatePublished - 2015

Keywords

  • Constant hazard rate
  • Decision from experience
  • Decision under risk
  • Exponential survival function
  • Generalization

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Social Psychology
  • Neuropsychology and Physiological Psychology
  • Applied Psychology
  • Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty

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