Decision-making models, rigor and new puzzles

Bruce Bueno de Mesquita

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

    Abstract

    Comparative tests of predictive accuracy across models are exceptionally rare in political science. The collection of articles in this issue provides a rigorous, systematic evaluation of alternative models for explaining and predicting decision-making within the European Union. I examine how alternative models were evaluated and raise questions about the differences in the extent to which the operational definitions of variables match contending theoretical approaches. I also raise questions regarding the difference between models with regard to whether the issues are part of a repeated game or a single-shot game. Finally, I propose future tests to hone in on some of the puzzles raised by the findings reported here.

    Original languageEnglish (US)
    Pages (from-to)125-138
    Number of pages14
    JournalEuropean Union Politics
    Volume5
    Issue number1
    DOIs
    StatePublished - Mar 2004

    Keywords

    • Measurement
    • Models
    • Post-diction
    • Prediction
    • Reliability

    ASJC Scopus subject areas

    • Health(social science)
    • Demography
    • Political Science and International Relations

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