Depression prevalence of the Geriatric Depression Scale-15 was compared to Structured Clinical Interview for DSM using individual participant data meta-analysis

Depression questionnaire cutoffs are calibrated for screening accuracy and not to assess prevalence, but the Geriatric Depression Scale (GDS-15) is often used to estimate diagnostic prevalence among older adults, most commonly with scores of ≥ 5. We conducted an individual participant data meta-analysis to compare depression prevalence based on GDS-15 ≥ 5 to Structured Clinical Interview for Diagnostic and Statistical Manual (SCID) diagnoses and assessed whether an alternative cutoff could be more accurate. We used generalized linear mixed models to estimate prevalence. Data from 14 studies (3602 participants, 434 SCID major depression) were included. Pooled GDS-15 ≥ 5 prevalence was 34.2% (95% confidence interval [CI] 27.5–41.6%), and pooled SCID prevalence was 14.8% (95% CI 10.0–21.5%; difference of 17.6%, 95% CI 11.6–23.6%). GDS-15 ≥ 8 provided the closest estimate to SCID with mean difference of − 0.3% (95% prediction interval − 17.0–16.5%). Prevalence estimate differences were not associated with study or participant characteristics. In sum, GDS-15 ≥ 5 substantially overestimated depression prevalence. A cutoff of ≥ 8 was accurate overall, but heterogeneity was too high for implementation in practice. Validated diagnostic interviews should be used to estimate major depression prevalence among older adults.