Divorce or temporary separation? Lessons from the US's history of decoupling with China and other nations

Binational decoupling—especially between the United States and China—has received growing attention, with most research focused on its current drivers. We instead draw on history to explain why decoupling occurs, showing it is not unprecedented. The US has previously severed ties with Britain, Germany, Japan, the USSR/Russia, and earlier Chinese regimes. Through a comparative historical analysis grounded in a model of political-economic complementarities, we argue that current complementarities deter decoupling, while historical ones create path dependencies that enable future recoupling—even after war. Our findings suggest decoupling is not necessarily permanent and may give way to renewed coupling under favorable conditions.