Economic shocks and civil conflict: An instrumental variables approach

Edward Miguel, Shanker Satyanath, Ernest Sergenti

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review


    Estimating the impact of economic conditions on the likelihood of civil conflict is difficult because of endogeneity and omitted variable bias. We use rainfall variation as an instrumental variable for economic growth in 41 African countries during 1981-99. Growth is strongly negatively related to civil conflict:.a negative growth shock of five percentage points increases the likelihood of conflict by one-half the following year. We attempt to rule out other channels through which rainfall may affect conflict. Surprisingly, the impact of growth shocks on conflict is not significantly different in richer, more democratic, or more ethnically diverse countries.

    Original languageEnglish (US)
    Pages (from-to)725-753
    Number of pages29
    JournalJournal of Political Economy
    Issue number4
    StatePublished - Aug 2004

    ASJC Scopus subject areas

    • Economics and Econometrics


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