ENSO influence on Bay of Bengal cyclogenesis confined to low latitudes

Shinto Roose; R. S. Ajayamohan; Pallav Ray; P. Reshmi Mohan; K. Mohanakumar

doi:10.1038/s41612-022-00252-8

ENSO influence on Bay of Bengal cyclogenesis confined to low latitudes

Shinto Roose, R. S. Ajayamohan, Pallav Ray, P. Reshmi Mohan, K. Mohanakumar

Center for Prototype Climate Modeling

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Abstract

The low-latitudinal cyclones (LLCs, originating between 5°N–10°N) constitute ≈40% of tropical cyclones (TCs) formed in the Bay of Bengal (BoB). We investigate the interannual variability of post-monsoonal (October to December) BoB LLCs and their teleconnection with El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). It is found that the years with the fewer number of BoB LLCs are associated with anomalous equatorial easterlies that are largely connected with the El Niño and positive IOD. Likewise, equatorial westerly phases, often associated with the La Niña and negative IOD years, favour the LLC formation by providing the initial spin-up required for cyclogenesis. This teleconnection between ENSO/IOD and BoB TC frequency is confined in the low-latitudinal region with little influence for cyclogenesis north of 10°N during ENSO and IOD except during negative IOD. These results may help extend the lead time and improve the seasonal prediction of BoB TCs.

Original language	English (US)
Article number	31
Journal	npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
Volume	5
Issue number	1
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-022-00252-8
State	Published - Dec 2022

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Global and Planetary Change
Environmental Chemistry
Atmospheric Science

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title = "ENSO influence on Bay of Bengal cyclogenesis confined to low latitudes",

abstract = "The low-latitudinal cyclones (LLCs, originating between 5°N–10°N) constitute ≈40% of tropical cyclones (TCs) formed in the Bay of Bengal (BoB). We investigate the interannual variability of post-monsoonal (October to December) BoB LLCs and their teleconnection with El Ni{\~n}o Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). It is found that the years with the fewer number of BoB LLCs are associated with anomalous equatorial easterlies that are largely connected with the El Ni{\~n}o and positive IOD. Likewise, equatorial westerly phases, often associated with the La Ni{\~n}a and negative IOD years, favour the LLC formation by providing the initial spin-up required for cyclogenesis. This teleconnection between ENSO/IOD and BoB TC frequency is confined in the low-latitudinal region with little influence for cyclogenesis north of 10°N during ENSO and IOD except during negative IOD. These results may help extend the lead time and improve the seasonal prediction of BoB TCs.",

author = "Shinto Roose and Ajayamohan, {R. S.} and Pallav Ray and Mohan, {P. Reshmi} and K. Mohanakumar",

note = "Funding Information: The Center for Prototype Climate Modeling is fully supported by the Abu Dhabi Government through New York University Abu Dhabi Research Institute Grant. RSA was supported by Tamkeen through research grant CG009 to NYUAD{\textquoteright}s ACCESS research center. This work was also supported by the Monsoon Mission project of the Ministry of Earth Sciences, Government of India (Grant No. MM/SERP/NYU/2014/SSC-01/002) to RSA, and the Office of Naval Research (ONR, N00014-1601-3091) to PR. The authors thank Dr. Roxy Mathew Koll and Vineet Kumar Singh for sharing codes to remove TC-related anomalies from the basic flow. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2022, The Author(s).",

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AU - Ray, Pallav

AU - Mohan, P. Reshmi

AU - Mohanakumar, K.

N1 - Funding Information: The Center for Prototype Climate Modeling is fully supported by the Abu Dhabi Government through New York University Abu Dhabi Research Institute Grant. RSA was supported by Tamkeen through research grant CG009 to NYUAD’s ACCESS research center. This work was also supported by the Monsoon Mission project of the Ministry of Earth Sciences, Government of India (Grant No. MM/SERP/NYU/2014/SSC-01/002) to RSA, and the Office of Naval Research (ONR, N00014-1601-3091) to PR. The authors thank Dr. Roxy Mathew Koll and Vineet Kumar Singh for sharing codes to remove TC-related anomalies from the basic flow. Publisher Copyright: © 2022, The Author(s).

PY - 2022/12

Y1 - 2022/12

N2 - The low-latitudinal cyclones (LLCs, originating between 5°N–10°N) constitute ≈40% of tropical cyclones (TCs) formed in the Bay of Bengal (BoB). We investigate the interannual variability of post-monsoonal (October to December) BoB LLCs and their teleconnection with El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). It is found that the years with the fewer number of BoB LLCs are associated with anomalous equatorial easterlies that are largely connected with the El Niño and positive IOD. Likewise, equatorial westerly phases, often associated with the La Niña and negative IOD years, favour the LLC formation by providing the initial spin-up required for cyclogenesis. This teleconnection between ENSO/IOD and BoB TC frequency is confined in the low-latitudinal region with little influence for cyclogenesis north of 10°N during ENSO and IOD except during negative IOD. These results may help extend the lead time and improve the seasonal prediction of BoB TCs.

AB - The low-latitudinal cyclones (LLCs, originating between 5°N–10°N) constitute ≈40% of tropical cyclones (TCs) formed in the Bay of Bengal (BoB). We investigate the interannual variability of post-monsoonal (October to December) BoB LLCs and their teleconnection with El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). It is found that the years with the fewer number of BoB LLCs are associated with anomalous equatorial easterlies that are largely connected with the El Niño and positive IOD. Likewise, equatorial westerly phases, often associated with the La Niña and negative IOD years, favour the LLC formation by providing the initial spin-up required for cyclogenesis. This teleconnection between ENSO/IOD and BoB TC frequency is confined in the low-latitudinal region with little influence for cyclogenesis north of 10°N during ENSO and IOD except during negative IOD. These results may help extend the lead time and improve the seasonal prediction of BoB TCs.

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ENSO influence on Bay of Bengal cyclogenesis confined to low latitudes

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