ENSO influence on Bay of Bengal cyclogenesis confined to low latitudes

Shinto Roose, R. S. Ajayamohan, Pallav Ray, P. Reshmi Mohan, K. Mohanakumar

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review


The low-latitudinal cyclones (LLCs, originating between 5°N–10°N) constitute ≈40% of tropical cyclones (TCs) formed in the Bay of Bengal (BoB). We investigate the interannual variability of post-monsoonal (October to December) BoB LLCs and their teleconnection with El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). It is found that the years with the fewer number of BoB LLCs are associated with anomalous equatorial easterlies that are largely connected with the El Niño and positive IOD. Likewise, equatorial westerly phases, often associated with the La Niña and negative IOD years, favour the LLC formation by providing the initial spin-up required for cyclogenesis. This teleconnection between ENSO/IOD and BoB TC frequency is confined in the low-latitudinal region with little influence for cyclogenesis north of 10°N during ENSO and IOD except during negative IOD. These results may help extend the lead time and improve the seasonal prediction of BoB TCs.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Article number31
Journalnpj Climate and Atmospheric Science
Issue number1
StatePublished - Dec 2022

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Global and Planetary Change
  • Environmental Chemistry
  • Atmospheric Science


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