TY - JOUR
T1 - Epochal evolution shapes the phylodynamics of interpandemic influenza a (H3N2) in humans
AU - Koelle, Katia
AU - Cobey, Sarah
AU - Grenfell, Bryan
AU - Pascual, Mercedes
PY - 2006/12
Y1 - 2006/12
N2 - Human influenza A (subtype H3N2) is characterized genetically by the limited standing diversity of its hemagglutinin and antigenically by clusters that emerge and replace each other within 2 to 8 years. By introducing an epidemiological model that allows for differences between the genetic and antigenic properties of the virus's hemagglutinin, we show that these patterns can arise from cluster-specific immunity alone. Central to the formulation is a genotype-to-phenotype mapping, based on neutral networks, with antigenic phenotypes, not genotypes, determining the degree of strain cross-immunity. The model parsimoniously explains well-known, as well as previously unremarked, features of interpandemic influenza dynamics and evolution. It captures the observed boom-and-bust pattern of viral evolution, with periods of antigenic stasis during which genetic diversity grows, and with episodic contraction of this diversity during cluster transitions.
AB - Human influenza A (subtype H3N2) is characterized genetically by the limited standing diversity of its hemagglutinin and antigenically by clusters that emerge and replace each other within 2 to 8 years. By introducing an epidemiological model that allows for differences between the genetic and antigenic properties of the virus's hemagglutinin, we show that these patterns can arise from cluster-specific immunity alone. Central to the formulation is a genotype-to-phenotype mapping, based on neutral networks, with antigenic phenotypes, not genotypes, determining the degree of strain cross-immunity. The model parsimoniously explains well-known, as well as previously unremarked, features of interpandemic influenza dynamics and evolution. It captures the observed boom-and-bust pattern of viral evolution, with periods of antigenic stasis during which genetic diversity grows, and with episodic contraction of this diversity during cluster transitions.
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U2 - 10.1126/science.1132745
DO - 10.1126/science.1132745
M3 - Article
C2 - 17185596
AN - SCOPUS:33845879635
SN - 0036-8075
VL - 314
SP - 1898
EP - 1903
JO - Science
JF - Science
IS - 5807
ER -