TY - JOUR
T1 - Estimating Earthquake-Induced Tsunami Height Probabilities without Sampling
AU - Tong, Shanyin
AU - Vanden-Eijnden, Eric
AU - Stadler, Georg
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2023, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Switzerland AG.
PY - 2023/5
Y1 - 2023/5
N2 - Given a distribution of earthquake-induced seafloor elevations, we present a method to compute the probability of the resulting tsunamis reaching a certain size on shore. Instead of sampling, the proposed method relies on optimization to compute the most likely fault slips that result in a seafloor deformation inducing a large tsunami wave. We model tsunamis induced by bathymetry change using the shallow water equations on an idealized slice through the sea. The earthquake slip model is based on a sum of multivariate log-normal distributions, and follows the Gutenberg-Richter law for seismic moment magnitudes ranging from 7 to 9. For a model problem inspired by the Tohoku-Oki 2011 earthquake and tsunami, we quantify annual probabilities of differently sized tsunami waves. Our method also identifies the most effective tsunami mechanisms. These mechanisms have smoothly varying fault slip patches that lead to an expansive but moderately large bathymetry change. The resulting tsunami waves are compressed as they approach shore and reach close-to-vertical leading wave edge close to shore.
AB - Given a distribution of earthquake-induced seafloor elevations, we present a method to compute the probability of the resulting tsunamis reaching a certain size on shore. Instead of sampling, the proposed method relies on optimization to compute the most likely fault slips that result in a seafloor deformation inducing a large tsunami wave. We model tsunamis induced by bathymetry change using the shallow water equations on an idealized slice through the sea. The earthquake slip model is based on a sum of multivariate log-normal distributions, and follows the Gutenberg-Richter law for seismic moment magnitudes ranging from 7 to 9. For a model problem inspired by the Tohoku-Oki 2011 earthquake and tsunami, we quantify annual probabilities of differently sized tsunami waves. Our method also identifies the most effective tsunami mechanisms. These mechanisms have smoothly varying fault slip patches that lead to an expansive but moderately large bathymetry change. The resulting tsunami waves are compressed as they approach shore and reach close-to-vertical leading wave edge close to shore.
KW - PDE-constrained optimization
KW - Tsunami hazard
KW - adjoint equations
KW - probability estimation
KW - shallow water equations
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U2 - 10.1007/s00024-023-03281-3
DO - 10.1007/s00024-023-03281-3
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85153706640
SN - 0033-4553
VL - 180
SP - 1587
EP - 1597
JO - Pure and Applied Geophysics
JF - Pure and Applied Geophysics
IS - 5
ER -