TY - JOUR
T1 - Estimating number of cases and spread of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) using critical care admissions, United Kingdom, February to March 2020
AU - LSHTM Centre for Mathematical Modelling ofInfectious Diseases COVID-19 Working Group
AU - Jit, Mark
AU - Jombart, Thibaut
AU - Nightingale, Emily S.
AU - Endo, Akira
AU - Abbott, Sam
AU - Edmunds, W. John
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2020 European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC). All rights reserved.
PY - 2020/5/7
Y1 - 2020/5/7
N2 - An exponential growth model was fitted to critical care admissions from two surveillance databases to determine likely coronavirus disease (COVID-19) case numbers, critical care admissions and epidemic growth in the United Kingdom before the national lockdown. We estimate, on 23 March, a median of 114,000 (95% credible interval (CrI): 78,000–173,000) new cases and 258 (95% CrI: 220–319) new critical care reports, with 527,000 (95% CrI: 362,000–797,000) cumulative cases since 16 February.
AB - An exponential growth model was fitted to critical care admissions from two surveillance databases to determine likely coronavirus disease (COVID-19) case numbers, critical care admissions and epidemic growth in the United Kingdom before the national lockdown. We estimate, on 23 March, a median of 114,000 (95% credible interval (CrI): 78,000–173,000) new cases and 258 (95% CrI: 220–319) new critical care reports, with 527,000 (95% CrI: 362,000–797,000) cumulative cases since 16 February.
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U2 - 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.18.2000632
DO - 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.18.2000632
M3 - Review article
C2 - 32400358
AN - SCOPUS:85084558318
SN - 1560-7917
VL - 25
SP - 1
EP - 5
JO - Eurosurveillance
JF - Eurosurveillance
IS - 18
ER -