Estimating the effects of a calorie-based sugar-sweetened beverage tax on weight and obesity in New York City adults using dynamic loss models

Purpose: Sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) contribute to weight gain and increase the risk of obesity. In this article, we determine the effects of an innovative SSB tax on weight and obesity in New York City adults. Methods: Dynamic weight loss models were used to estimate the effects of an expected 5800-calorie reduction resulting from an SSB tax on weight and obesity. Baseline data were derived from the New York City Community Health Survey. One, five, and 10-year simulations of weight loss were performed. Results: Calorie reductions resulted in a per-person weight loss of 0.46kg in year 1 and 0.92kg in year 10. A total of 5,531,059kg was expected to be lost over 10 years when weighted to the full New York City adult population. Approximately 50% of overall bodyweight loss occurred within the first year, and 95% within 5 years. Results showed consistent but nonsignificant decreases in obesity prevalence. Conclusions: SSB taxes may be viable strategies to reduce obesity when combined with other interventions to maximize effects in the population.