Estimation of transition probabilities from facility condition ratings

Samer Madanat, Rabi Mishalani, Wan Hashim Wan Ibrahim

Research output: Contribution to conferencePaperpeer-review


Markovian transition probabilities have been used extensively in the field of infrastructure management to provide forecasts of facility conditions. However, existing approaches used to estimate these transition probabilities from inspection data are mostly ad hoc and suffer from important methodological limitations. In this paper, we present a rigorous econometric method for the estimation of infrastructure deterioration models and associated transition probabilities from condition rating data. This methodology, which is based on ordered probit techniques, explicitly treats facility deterioration as a latent variable, recognizes the discrete ordinal nature of condition ratings and, as opposed to state-of-the-art methods, explicitly links deterioration to relevant explanatory variables. An empirical case study, using a bridge inspection data set from Indiana, demonstrates the capabilities of the proposed methodology.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Number of pages12
StatePublished - 1995
EventProceedings of the Transportation Congress. Part 1 (of 2) - San Diego, CA, USA
Duration: Oct 22 1995Oct 26 1995


OtherProceedings of the Transportation Congress. Part 1 (of 2)
CitySan Diego, CA, USA

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • General Engineering


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