Evacuation modelling in the United States: Does the demand model choice matter?

Mustafa Anil Yazici, Kaan Ozbay

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review


This paper reviews the literature on the evacuation demand problem, with an emphasis on the impact of various modelling approaches on network-wide evacuation performance measures. First, a number of important factors that affect evacuee behaviour are summarized. Evacuation software packages and tools are also investigated in terms of the demand generation model they use. The most widely used models are then selected for performing sensitivity analysis. Next, a cell-transmission-based system optimal dynamic traffic assignment (SO-DTA) model is employed to assess the effects of the demand model choice on the clearance time and average travel time. It is concluded that evacuation demand models should be selected with care, and policy makers should make sure the selected demand curve can replicate real-life conditions with relatively high fidelity for the study region to be able to develop reliable and realistic evacuation plans.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)757-779
Number of pages23
JournalTransport Reviews
Issue number6
StatePublished - 2008

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Transportation


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