Evaluation of determinants of the serological response to the quadrivalent split-inactivated influenza vaccine

Shaohuan Wu, Ted M. Ross, Michael A. Carlock, Elodie Ghedin, Hyungwon Choi, Christine Vogel

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review


The seasonal influenza vaccine is only effective in half of the vaccinated population. To identify determinants of vaccine efficacy, we used data from > 1,300 vaccination events to predict the response to vaccination measured as seroconversion as well as hemagglutination inhibition (HAI) titer levels one year after. We evaluated the predictive capabilities of age, body mass index (BMI), sex, race, comorbidities, vaccination history, and baseline HAI titers, as well as vaccination month and vaccine dose in multiple linear regression models. The models predicted the categorical response for > 75% of the cases in all subsets with one exception. Prior vaccination, baseline titer level, and age were the major determinants of seroconversion, all of which had negative effects. Further, we identified a gender effect in older participants and an effect of vaccination month. BMI had a surprisingly small effect, likely due to its correlation with age. Comorbidities, vaccine dose, and race had negligible effects. Our models can generate a new seroconversion score that is corrected for the impact of these factors which can facilitate future biomarker identification.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Article numbere10724
JournalMolecular systems biology
Issue number5
StatePublished - May 2022


  • human cohort
  • immune response
  • influenza
  • split-inactivated influenza vaccine
  • statistical modeling

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • General Agricultural and Biological Sciences
  • Information Systems
  • Applied Mathematics
  • General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology
  • General Immunology and Microbiology
  • Computational Theory and Mathematics


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