Forecast skill and predictability of observed atlantic sea surface temperatures

Laure Zanna

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

An empirical statistical model is constructed to assess the forecast skill and the linear predictability of Atlantic Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) variability. Linear inverse modeling (LIM) is used to build a dynamically based statistical model using observed Atlantic SST anomalies between latitudes 208S and 668N from 1870 to 2009. LIM allows one to fit a multivariate red-noise model to the observed annually averaged SST anomalies and to test it. Forecast skill is assessed and is shown to be O(3-5 yr). After a few years, the skill is greatly reduced, especially in the subpolar region. In the stable dynamical system determined by LIM, skill of annual average SST anomalies arises fromfour damped eigenmodes. The four eigenmodes are shown to be relevant in particular for the optimal growth events of SST variance, with a pattern reminiscent of the low-frequency mode of variability, and in general for the predictability and variability of Atlantic SSTs on interannual time scales. LIM might serve as a useful benchmark for interannual and decadal forecasts of SST anomalies that are based on numerical models.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)5047-5056
Number of pages10
JournalJournal of Climate
Volume25
Issue number14
DOIs
StatePublished - Jul 2012

Keywords

  • Climate prediction
  • Climate variability
  • North Atlantic Ocean
  • Singular vectors
  • Statistical forecasting

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Atmospheric Science

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