Formative reasons for state-to-state influences on firearm acquisition in the U.S.

Objectives: Firearm-related crimes and self-inflicted harms pose a significant threat to the safety and well-being of Americans. Investigation of firearm prevalence in the United States (U.S.) has therefore been a center of attention. A critical aspect in this endeavor is to explain whether there are identifiable patterns in firearm acquisition. Methods: We view firearm acquisition patterning as a spatio-temporal dynamical system distributed across U.S. states that co-evolves with crime rates, political ideology, income levels, population, and the legal environment. We leverage transfer entropy and exponential random graph models along with publicly available data, to statistically reveal the formative factors in how each state's temporal patterning of firearm acquisition influences other states. Results: Results help to explain how and why U.S. states influence each other in their firearm acquisition. We establish that state-to-state influences, or lack thereof, in firearm acquisition patterning are explained by states’ percent of gun homicide, firearm law strictness, geographic neighborhood, and citizen ideology. Network-based characteristics, namely, mutuality and transitivity, are also important to explain such influence. Conclusions: Results suggest that state policies or programs that reduce gun homicides will also help suppress that state's influence on the patterning of firearm acquisition in other states. Furthermore, states with stricter firearm laws are more likely to influence firearm acquisition in other states, but are themselves shielded from the effects of other states’ firearm acquisition patterns. These results inform future research in public health, criminology, and policy making.