Four-year incidence and predictors of coronal caries in south Brazilian elderly

Objectives To determine the incidence and predictors of coronal caries among community-dwelling elderly in a southern Brazilian city. Methods A cohort study was conducted using a simple random sample of persons aged 60 years or older in Carlos Barbosa city, southern Brazil. Interviews and oral examinations were conducted among 388 dentate individuals at baseline and among 273 at 4-year follow-up. The incidence of coronal caries was modeled by means of negative binomial regression. Results Some 184 (76.7%) participants presented with new coronal caries lesions or restorations, whose mean number was 2.2 ± 2.1, whereas the 4-year mean coronal caries incidence rate was 0.28 ± 0.29. In the multivariate model that controlled for baseline predictors, older age, male gender, living in a rural area, current smoking, and negative self-perception of oral health were associated with coronal caries incidence. Among clinical variables, the use of partial dentures was a predictor, whereas higher saliva flow rate was a protective factor for the outcome. Conclusions Demographic factors, primary determinants of health, behavioral, and clinical variables were predictors of the incidence of coronal caries. As people enter old age, even stronger emphasis should be put on preventive strategies.