Funding quality pre-kindergarten slots with Philadelphia's new 'sugary drink tax': Simulating effects of using an excise tax to address a social determinant of health

Objective Philadelphia passed a 1·5-cent-per-ounce sweetened beverage tax (SBT). Revenue will fund 10 000 quality pre-kindergarten slots for poor children. It is imperative to understand how revenue from SBT can be used to fund programmes to address education and other social determinants of health. The objective of the present study was to simulate quality pre-kindergarten attendance, educational achievement and sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) consumption among Philadelphia children and adolescents under six intervention scenarios: (i) no intervention; (ii) 10 000 additional quality pre-kindergarten slots; (iii) a 1·5-cent-per-ounce SBT; (iv) expanded pre-kindergarten and 1·5-cent-per-ounce SBT; (v) a 3-cent-per-ounce SBT; and (vi) expanded pre-kindergarten and 3-cent-per-ounce SBT. Design We used an agent-based model to estimate pre-kindergarten enrolment, educational achievement and SSB consumption under the six policy scenarios. We identified key parameters in the model from the published literature and secondary analyses of the Panel Study of Income Dynamics-Child Development Supplement. Setting Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA. Subjects Philadelphia children and adolescents aged 4-18 years. Results A 1·5-cents-per-ounce tax would reduce SSB consumption by 1·3 drinks/week among Philadelphia children and adolescents relative to no intervention, with larger effects among children below the poverty level. Quality pre-kindergarten expansion magnifies the effect of the SBT by 8 %, but has the largest effect on moderate-income children just above the poverty level. The SBT and quality pre-kindergarten programme each reduce SSB consumption, but primarily benefit different children and adolescents. Conclusions Pairing an excise tax with a complementary programme to improve a social determinant of health represents a progressive strategy to combat obesity, a disease regressive in its social patterning.