Grievance shocks and coordination in protest

Sofía Correa, Gaétan Nandong, Mehdi Shadmehr

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

    Abstract

    When grievance shocks have heavy tails, large sudden increases in grievances coordinate behavior far more effectively into protests than a sequence of small grievance shocks that generate the same final distribution of grievances in society. That is, society as a whole behaves like the legendary boiling frog, even though each individual does not. An implication is a strong form of path-dependence in collective action. To assess a society's potential for protest, it is not enough to know the current distribution of antiregime sentiments; we also need to know how they came about: suddenly or gradually. The theory also provides a rationale for the classic J-curve theory of revolution. We provide a quantitative analysis of the relationship between grievance shocks and protests in Chile in 2014–2019. Consistent with the theory, results suggest that, even after controlling for grievance levels, large grievance shocks increased the number of protests.

    Original languageEnglish (US)
    Pages (from-to)341-354
    Number of pages14
    JournalAmerican Journal of Political Science
    Volume69
    Issue number1
    DOIs
    StatePublished - Jan 2025

    ASJC Scopus subject areas

    • Sociology and Political Science
    • Political Science and International Relations

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