Growth, Import Dependence, and War

Roberto Bonfatti, Kevin Hjortshøj O'Rourke

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review


Theories of war predict that the leader may launch a war on a follower who is catching up, since the follower cannot commit to not use their increased power in the future. But it was Japan who attacked the West in 1941: both leaders and followers start wars. Similarly, many have argued that trade makes war less likely, yet the First World War erupted at a time of unprecedented globalisation. We develop a model of trade and war that can explain both observations. Dependence on imports can lead followers to attack leaders or resource-rich regions when they are subject to blockade.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)2222-2257
Number of pages36
JournalEconomic Journal
Issue number614
StatePublished - Sep 2018

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Economics and Econometrics


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