@article{718d3d2e89d14256a0a47d583b50ba79,
title = "Growth, Import Dependence, and War",
abstract = "Theories of war predict that the leader may launch a war on a follower who is catching up, since the follower cannot commit to not use their increased power in the future. But it was Japan who attacked the West in 1941: both leaders and followers start wars. Similarly, many have argued that trade makes war less likely, yet the First World War erupted at a time of unprecedented globalisation. We develop a model of trade and war that can explain both observations. Dependence on imports can lead followers to attack leaders or resource-rich regions when they are subject to blockade.",
author = "Roberto Bonfatti and O'Rourke, {Kevin Hjortsh{\o}j}",
note = "Funding Information: We thank Avner Offer, Nicholas Rodger, Dan Seidmann, Stergios Skaperdas and Hew Strachan for useful comments. We are particularly grateful to two anonymous referees, as well as our editor, Joachim Voth, whose very detailed and helpful criticisms and suggestions improved the article immensely. We are grateful to seminar participants at SIE 2016, DEGIT 2016, the first LSE-Sticerd Alumni Conference, UC Irvine, the University of Nottingham, University of Oxford, Syddansk Universitet, Queens University Belfast, VU Amsterdam, ISNIE 2013 and ETSG 2013. Bonfatti received research funding from the School of Economics at the University of Nottingham; O{\textquoteright}Rourke received funding from the European Research Council under the European Union{\textquoteright}s Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013)/ERC grant agreement no. 249546. Both express their gratitude. The usual disclaimer applies. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2017 Royal Economic Society",
year = "2018",
month = sep,
doi = "10.1111/ecoj.12511",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "128",
pages = "2222--2257",
journal = "Economic Journal",
issn = "0013-0133",
publisher = "Wiley-Blackwell",
number = "614",
}