How to take variability into account when planning the capacity for a new hospital unit

Providing the appropriate level of capacity for post-operative care to cater for the activity planned in operating theatres is an important planning issue affecting staffing levels as well as the provision of physical bed capacity and ward space. Over-provision of post-operative capacity is wasteful of resources while underprovision can cause operations to be cancelled and expensive operating theatre time to be wasted.This chapter addresses the problem faced by the planner who wishes to take account of unpredictable variability in post-operative length of stay. This planning problem is discussed with specific reference to planning capacity requirements for post-operative recovery within one of the new generation of health care centres being introduced within the UK NHS.