Identifying intraparty voting blocs in the U.K. House of Commons

Arthur Spirling, Kevin Quinn

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

    Abstract

    Legislative voting records are an important source of information about legislator preferences, intraparty cohesiveness, and the divisiveness of various policy issues. Standard methods of analyzing a legislative voting record tend to have serious drawbacks when applied to legislatures, such as the United Kingdom House of Commons, that feature highly disciplined parties, strategic voting, and large amounts of missing data.We present a method (based on a Dirichlet process mixture model) for analyzing such voting records that does not suffer from these same problems. Our method is model-based and thus allows one to make probability statements about quantities of interest. It allows one to estimate the number of voting blocs within a party or any other group of members of parliament (MPs). Finally, it can be used as both a predictive model and an exploratory model. We illustrate these points through an application of the method to the voting records of Labour Party MPs in the 1997-2001 session of the U.K. House of Commons.

    Original languageEnglish (US)
    Pages (from-to)447-457
    Number of pages11
    JournalJournal of the American Statistical Association
    Volume105
    Issue number490
    DOIs
    StatePublished - Jun 2010

    Keywords

    • Dirichlet process mixture models
    • Political science
    • Roll call data

    ASJC Scopus subject areas

    • Statistics and Probability
    • Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty

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