TY - JOUR
T1 - Imagining Simpler Worlds to Understand the Complexity of Our Own
AU - Gerber, Edwin P.
AU - DallaSanta, Kevin
AU - Gupta, Aman
N1 - Funding Information:
No original data were produced or used in this commentary. All conclusions were based on the works cited. Figure was reproduced from Grise and Polvani (). The authors thank the National Science Foundation for support through Grant AGS-1852727 to New York University. E. P. G. also thanks the European Research Council for support through Project 677756, FORECASToneMONTH.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2019. The Authors.
PY - 2019/9/1
Y1 - 2019/9/1
N2 - The atmospheric circulation response to global warming is important for accurate prediction of climate change on regional scales. For the midlatitudes, shifts in the extratropical jet streams have important consequences for precipitation, blocking, and extreme events. It has proven to be a challenge, however, to predict. For example, the North Atlantic jet stream plays a vital role in the climate of eastern North America and Europe; in the last intercomparison of state-of-the-art climate models, the models did not even agree on the sign of its wintertime response to global warming. Perhaps this should not come as a surprise, as we also lack a comprehensive theory for the impact of warming on the midlatitude circulation. In a recent study, Tan et al. (2019, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018MS001492) constructed models of simpler atmospheres to explore the response of the midlatitude jet to global warming. Their idealized atmospheres highlight the difficulty of developing a comprehensive theory for the midlatitude circulation but also provide pathways to improve models of Earth's atmosphere. Models of simpler atmospheres allow one to isolate the impact of specific atmospheric processes and connect theoretical understanding with comprehensive climate prediction systems. Such models can also be used to explore very different atmospheric regimes, from Earth's past to distant planets.
AB - The atmospheric circulation response to global warming is important for accurate prediction of climate change on regional scales. For the midlatitudes, shifts in the extratropical jet streams have important consequences for precipitation, blocking, and extreme events. It has proven to be a challenge, however, to predict. For example, the North Atlantic jet stream plays a vital role in the climate of eastern North America and Europe; in the last intercomparison of state-of-the-art climate models, the models did not even agree on the sign of its wintertime response to global warming. Perhaps this should not come as a surprise, as we also lack a comprehensive theory for the impact of warming on the midlatitude circulation. In a recent study, Tan et al. (2019, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018MS001492) constructed models of simpler atmospheres to explore the response of the midlatitude jet to global warming. Their idealized atmospheres highlight the difficulty of developing a comprehensive theory for the midlatitude circulation but also provide pathways to improve models of Earth's atmosphere. Models of simpler atmospheres allow one to isolate the impact of specific atmospheric processes and connect theoretical understanding with comprehensive climate prediction systems. Such models can also be used to explore very different atmospheric regimes, from Earth's past to distant planets.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85073790349&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85073790349&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1029/2019MS001753
DO - 10.1029/2019MS001753
M3 - Comment/debate
AN - SCOPUS:85073790349
SN - 1942-2466
VL - 11
SP - 2862
EP - 2867
JO - Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems
JF - Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems
IS - 9
ER -