Incorporating climate uncertainty into estimates of climate change impacts

Marshall Burke, John Dykema, David B. Lobell, Edward Miguel, Shanker Satyanath

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

    Abstract

    Quantitative estimates of the impacts of climate change on economic outcomes are important for public policy. We show that the vast majority of estimates fail to account for well-established uncertainty in future temperature and rainfall changes, leading to potentially misleading projections. We reexamine seven well-cited studies and show that accounting for climate uncertainty leads to a much larger range of projected climate impacts and a greater likelihood of worst-case outcomes, an important policy parameter. Incorporating climate uncertainty into future economic impact assessments will be critical for providing the best possible information on potential impacts.

    Original languageEnglish (US)
    Pages (from-to)461-471
    Number of pages11
    JournalReview of Economics and Statistics
    Volume97
    Issue number2
    DOIs
    StatePublished - May 1 2015

    ASJC Scopus subject areas

    • Social Sciences (miscellaneous)
    • Economics and Econometrics

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