Abstract
The nature of the increasing frequency of extreme rainfall events (ERE) in central India is investigated by relating their occurrence to synoptic activity. Using a long record of the paths and intensities of monsoon synoptic disturbances, a synoptic activity index (SAI) is defined whose interannual variation correlates strongly with that in the number of ERE, demonstrating a strong connection between these phenomena. SAI furthermore shows a rising trend that is statistically indistinguishable from that in ERE, indicating that the increasing frequency of ERE is likely attributable to a rising trend in synoptic activity. This synoptic activity increase results from a rising trend in relatively weak low pressure systems (LPS), and it outweighs a declining trend in stronger LPS.
Original language | English (US) |
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Pages (from-to) | 1004-1013 |
Number of pages | 10 |
Journal | Journal of Climate |
Volume | 23 |
Issue number | 4 |
DOIs | |
State | Published - Feb 2010 |
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Atmospheric Science