Infrastructure management under uncertainty: Latent performance approach

This paper presents a new framework for the analysis of infrastructure performance and the planning of inspection, maintenance, and rehabilitation (M&R) activities. The main facets of this framework are: Explicitly modeling the errors in measurement of facility performance indicators; treating the key variable in the process, facility performance, as a latent variable that manifests itself through measured condition indicators; and explicitly analyzing and including in the decision process the uncertainties in infrastructure condition measurement and performance forecasting. Our approach recognizes the errors inherent in the measurement of the condition indicators; these errors are quantified through the use of measurement error models. A model system relating the latent facility performance to explanatory variables and to observed indicators is developed. Our M&R activity planning model accounts for the presence of uncertainty in the output of the inspection of facility condition and the forecasting of facility performance. An application example is presented.