Interest rate risk and other determinants of post-WWII US government Debt/GDP dynamics

George J. Hall; Thomas J. Sargent

doi:10.1257/mac.3.3.192

Interest rate risk and other determinants of post-WWII US government Debt/GDP dynamics

George J. Hall, Thomas J. Sargent

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Abstract

This paper uses a sequence of government budget constraints to motivate estimates of returns on the US Federal government debt. Our estimates differ conceptually and quantitatively from the interest payments reported by the US government. We use our estimates to account for contributions to the evolution of the debt-GDP ratio made by inflation, growth, and nominal returns paid on debts of different maturities.

Original language	English (US)
Pages (from-to)	192-214
Number of pages	23
Journal	American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics
Volume	3
Issue number	3
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.3.3.192
State	Published - Jul 2011

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Economics, Econometrics and Finance(all)

Access to Document

10.1257/mac.3.3.192

Cite this

@article{794c570c1d894a54ab1379a9f0873140,

title = "Interest rate risk and other determinants of post-WWII US government Debt/GDP dynamics",

abstract = "This paper uses a sequence of government budget constraints to motivate estimates of returns on the US Federal government debt. Our estimates differ conceptually and quantitatively from the interest payments reported by the US government. We use our estimates to account for contributions to the evolution of the debt-GDP ratio made by inflation, growth, and nominal returns paid on debts of different maturities.",

author = "Hall, {George J.} and Sargent, {Thomas J.}",

year = "2011",

month = jul,

doi = "10.1257/mac.3.3.192",

language = "English (US)",

volume = "3",

pages = "192--214",

journal = "American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics",

issn = "1945-7707",

publisher = "American Economic Association",

number = "3",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Interest rate risk and other determinants of post-WWII US government Debt/GDP dynamics

AU - Hall, George J.

AU - Sargent, Thomas J.

PY - 2011/7

Y1 - 2011/7

N2 - This paper uses a sequence of government budget constraints to motivate estimates of returns on the US Federal government debt. Our estimates differ conceptually and quantitatively from the interest payments reported by the US government. We use our estimates to account for contributions to the evolution of the debt-GDP ratio made by inflation, growth, and nominal returns paid on debts of different maturities.

AB - This paper uses a sequence of government budget constraints to motivate estimates of returns on the US Federal government debt. Our estimates differ conceptually and quantitatively from the interest payments reported by the US government. We use our estimates to account for contributions to the evolution of the debt-GDP ratio made by inflation, growth, and nominal returns paid on debts of different maturities.

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=79960783868&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=79960783868&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1257/mac.3.3.192

DO - 10.1257/mac.3.3.192

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:79960783868

SN - 1945-7707

VL - 3

SP - 192

EP - 214

JO - American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics

JF - American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics

IS - 3

ER -

Interest rate risk and other determinants of post-WWII US government Debt/GDP dynamics

Abstract

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Access to Document

Other files and links

Fingerprint

Cite this