TY - JOUR
T1 - Introducing a re-sampling methodology for the estimation of empirical macroscopic fundamental diagrams
AU - Ambühl, Lukas
AU - Loder, Allister
AU - Bliemer, Michiel C.J.
AU - Menendez, Monica
AU - Axhausen, Kay W.
N1 - Funding Information:
This work was supported by ETH Research Grants ETH-04 15-1 and ETH-27 16-1. We especially thank Thomas Karrer and Milena Scherer from the city of Lucerne and Ashley Turner and Andy Emmonds from Transport for London (TfL) for their collaboration.
Publisher Copyright:
© National Academy of Sciences: Transportation Research Board 2018
PY - 2018/12
Y1 - 2018/12
N2 - The uncertainty in the estimation of the macroscopic fundamental diagram (MFD) under real-world traffic conditions and urban dynamics might result in an inaccurate estimation of the MFD parameters—especially if congestion is rarely observed network-wide. For example, as data normally come from punctual observations out of the whole network, it is unclear how representative these observations might be (i.e., how much is the observed capacity affected by the network’s inhomogene-ity). Similarly, if the observed data do not exhibit a distinct congested branch, it is hard to determine the network capacity and critical density. This, in turn, also leads to uncertainties and errors in the parametrization of the MFD for applications, for example traffic control. This paper introduces a novel methodology to estimate (i) the level of inhomogeneity in the network, and (ii) the critical density of the MFD, even when no congested branch is observed. The methodology is based on the idea of re-sampling the empirical data set. Using an extensive data set from Lucerne, Switzerland, and London, UK, insights are provided on the performance and the application of the proposed methodology. The proposed methodology is used to illustrate how the level of inhomogeneity is lower in Lucerne than in the three areas of the network of London that are investigated. The proposed measure of the level of inhomogeneity gives city planners the possibility to analyze and investigate how efficiently their road network is utilized. In addition, the analysis shows that, for the network of Lucerne, the proposed methodology allows accurate estimation of the critical density up to 16 times more often than would be possible otherwise. This simple and robust estimation of the critical density is crucial for the application of many traffic control algorithms.
AB - The uncertainty in the estimation of the macroscopic fundamental diagram (MFD) under real-world traffic conditions and urban dynamics might result in an inaccurate estimation of the MFD parameters—especially if congestion is rarely observed network-wide. For example, as data normally come from punctual observations out of the whole network, it is unclear how representative these observations might be (i.e., how much is the observed capacity affected by the network’s inhomogene-ity). Similarly, if the observed data do not exhibit a distinct congested branch, it is hard to determine the network capacity and critical density. This, in turn, also leads to uncertainties and errors in the parametrization of the MFD for applications, for example traffic control. This paper introduces a novel methodology to estimate (i) the level of inhomogeneity in the network, and (ii) the critical density of the MFD, even when no congested branch is observed. The methodology is based on the idea of re-sampling the empirical data set. Using an extensive data set from Lucerne, Switzerland, and London, UK, insights are provided on the performance and the application of the proposed methodology. The proposed methodology is used to illustrate how the level of inhomogeneity is lower in Lucerne than in the three areas of the network of London that are investigated. The proposed measure of the level of inhomogeneity gives city planners the possibility to analyze and investigate how efficiently their road network is utilized. In addition, the analysis shows that, for the network of Lucerne, the proposed methodology allows accurate estimation of the critical density up to 16 times more often than would be possible otherwise. This simple and robust estimation of the critical density is crucial for the application of many traffic control algorithms.
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U2 - 10.1177/0361198118788181
DO - 10.1177/0361198118788181
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85052568492
SN - 0361-1981
VL - 2672
SP - 239
EP - 248
JO - Transportation Research Record
JF - Transportation Research Record
IS - 20
ER -