Making predictions based on data: Holistic and atomistic procedures

Jacob Glazer, Ariel Rubinstein

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review


    Subjects were asked to predict the choice made by a hypothetical individual, based on a small sample of his past choices in identical situations. Each of the alternatives facing the individual has a number of components. When the data is presented explicitly as a distribution of past choices, most subjects use the holistic procedure according to which the prediction is the most common choice made in the past. Nevertheless, a significant minority of subjects use atomistic procedures, which relate to the various components individually. When the distribution is not explicitly presented but can be derived from the data, subjects apply both atomistic procedures and holistic rules of thumb.

    Original languageEnglish (US)
    Article number105791
    JournalJournal of Economic Theory
    StatePublished - Mar 2024


    • Data-based predictions
    • Experimental economics
    • Non-Bayesian beliefs

    ASJC Scopus subject areas

    • Economics and Econometrics


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