Making real-time predictions of people's irregular movement in a metropolitan scale under disaster situations

Takahiro Yabe, Yoshihide Sekimoto, Hiroshi Kanasugi, Takehiro Kashiyama

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Abstract

In this paper, we present our method of accurately predicting people's movement under disaster situations in a metropolitan scale. Recently many studies have suggested methods on predicting the daily movement of the people from various datasets. However because of the lack of accumulated data and irregular behaviors of people in emergency, people movement pre-diction under disaster situations has been challenging. Our method com-bines multi agent simulation which uses heterogeneous characteristics of people in the behavioral model, and real-time observation data. We verified the effectiveness of our method by experimenting it on the Great East Japan Earthquake, and also showed that the hourly update of the optimum param-eters of the model was effective in keeping a high prediction accuracy. Also, the number of people bound for each destination matched the survey results carried out by different research, supporting the accuracy of the method.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Title of host publicationCUPUM 2015 - 14th International Conference on Computers in Urban Planning and Urban Management
PublisherCUPUM
ISBN (Electronic)9780692474341
StatePublished - 2015
Event14th International Conference on Computers in Urban Planning and Urban Management, CUPUM 2015 - Cambridge, United States
Duration: Jul 7 2015Jul 10 2015

Publication series

NameCUPUM 2015 - 14th International Conference on Computers in Urban Planning and Urban Management

Conference

Conference14th International Conference on Computers in Urban Planning and Urban Management, CUPUM 2015
Country/TerritoryUnited States
CityCambridge
Period7/7/157/10/15

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Environmental Engineering
  • Geography, Planning and Development
  • Urban Studies
  • Ecology
  • Civil and Structural Engineering

Fingerprint

Dive into the research topics of 'Making real-time predictions of people's irregular movement in a metropolitan scale under disaster situations'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this