Medicare Advantage Plan Star Ratings and County Social Vulnerability

IMPORTANCE The star rating of a Medicare Advantage (MA) plan is meant to represent plan performance, and it determines the size of quality bonuses. Consumer access to MA plans with a high star rating may vary by the extent of social vulnerability in geographic regions. OBJECTIVE To examine the association between a county’s Social Vulnerability Index (SVI) and the star rating of a county’s MA plans. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS This cross-sectional study used 2023 Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services data for all MA plans linked to 2020 county-level SVI data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Data were analyzed from March to October 2023. EXPOSURE Quintile rank of county based on composite and theme-specific SVI scores, with quartile 1 (Q1) representing the least vulnerable counties and Q5, the most vulnerable counties. The SVI is a multidimensional measure of a county’s social vulnerability across 4 themes: socioeconomic status, household characteristics (such as disability, age, and language), racial and ethnic minority status, and housing type and transportation. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES County-level mean star rating and the number of MA plans with low-rated (<3.5 stars), high-rated (3.5 or 4.0 stars), and highest-rated (≥4.5 stars) plans. RESULTS Across 3075 counties, the median county-level star rating was 4.1 (IQR, 3.9-4.3) in Q1 counties and 3.8 (IQR, 3.6-4.0) in Q5 counties (P < .001). The mean star rating of MA plans was lower (difference, −0.24 points; 95% CI, −0.28 to −0.21 points; P < .001), the number of low-rated plans was higher (incidence rate ratio, 1.81; 95% CI, 1.61-2.06; P < .001), and the number of highest-rated plans was lower (incidence rate ratio, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.70-0.81; P < .001) in Q5 counties compared with Q1 counties. Similar patterns were found across theme-specific SVI score quintiles and for 2022 star ratings. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE In this cross-sectional study, the most socially vulnerable counties were found to have the fewest highest-rated plans for MA beneficiaries. As MA enrollment grows in socially vulnerable regions, this may exacerbate regional differences in health outcomes for Medicare beneficiaries.