@article{a66a748cf86a43e893daf9905361ceb3,
title = "Modeling Human Migration Under Environmental Change: A Case Study of the Effect of Sea Level Rise in Bangladesh",
abstract = "Sea level rise (SLR) could have catastrophic consequences worldwide. More than 600 million people currently living in coastal areas may see their livelihood at risk and choose to migrate in the near future. Predicting when, how, and where people could migrate under environmental change is critical to devise effective policy initiatives and improve our preparedness. Here, we propose a modeling framework to predict the effect of SLR on migration patterns from easily accessible geographic and demographic data. The framework adapts the radiation model to capture unwillingness or inability to migrate of affected residents, as well as return migration and cascading effects in migration patterns. We apply the mathematical model to study internal migration in Bangladesh, where we predict a complex and counterintuitive landscape of migration patterns between districts. Our predictions indicate that the impact of SLR on 816,000 people by 2050 will trigger cascading effects in migration patterns throughout the entire country. The population of each of the 64 districts will change, leading to a total variation of 1.3 million people. Migration from inundated regions in the center will trigger non-trivial patterns, including a reduction in the population of the district of the capital Dhaka.",
keywords = "environmental change, human migration, networks, radiation model, sea level rise",
author = "{De Lellis}, Pietro and {Ruiz Mar{\'i}n}, Manuel and Maurizio Porfiri",
note = "Funding Information: This study is part of the collaborative activities carried out under the program of the region of Murcia (Spain): “Groups of Excellence of the region of Murcia, the Fundaci{\'o}n S{\'e}neca, Science and Technology Agency” project 19884/GERM/15 and “Call for Fellowships for Guest Researcher Stays at Universities and OPIS” project 21144/IV/19, and of the program “STAR 2018” of the University of Naples Federico II and Compagnia di San Paolo, Istituto Banco di Napoli – Fondazione, project ACROSS. M. Porfiri would like to express his gratitude to the Technical University of Cartagena for hosting him during a Sabbatical leave and to acknowledge support from the National Science Foundation under Grant number CMMI 1561134. M. Ruiz Mar{\'i}n would like to acknowledge support from Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovaci{\'o}n of Spain under Grant number PID2019‐107800GB‐I00 / AEI / 10.13039/501100011033. The authors would also like to thank Paolo D'Odorico for useful discussion and for sharing codes and data. Funding Information: This study is part of the collaborative activities carried out under the program of the region of Murcia (Spain): ?Groups of Excellence of the region of Murcia, the Fundaci?n S?neca, Science and Technology Agency? project 19884/GERM/15 and ?Call for Fellowships for Guest Researcher Stays at Universities and OPIS? project 21144/IV/19, and of the program ?STAR 2018? of the University of Naples Federico II and Compagnia di San Paolo, Istituto Banco di Napoli ? Fondazione, project ACROSS. M. Porfiri would like to express his gratitude to the Technical University of Cartagena for hosting him during a Sabbatical leave and to acknowledge support from the National Science Foundation under Grant number CMMI 1561134. M. Ruiz Mar?n would like to acknowledge support from Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovaci?n of Spain under Grant number PID2019-107800GB-I00 / AEI / 10.13039/501100011033. The authors would also like to thank Paolo D'Odorico for useful discussion and for sharing codes and data. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2021. The Authors. Earth's Future published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Geophysical Union.",
year = "2021",
month = apr,
doi = "10.1029/2020EF001931",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "9",
journal = "Earth's Future",
issn = "2328-4277",
publisher = "John Wiley and Sons Inc.",
number = "4",
}