Modeling the spread of methicillin-resistant staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) outbreaks throughout the hospitals in Orange County, California

Bruce Y. Lee, Sarah M. McGlone, Kim F. Wong, S. Levent Yilmaz, Taliser R. Avery, Yeohan Song, Richard Christie, Stephen Eubank, Shawn T. Brown, Joshua M. Epstein, Jon I. Parker, Donald S. Burke, Richard Platt, Susan S. Huang

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

Background. Since hospitals in a region often share patients, an outbreak of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) infection in one hospital could affect other hospitals. methods. Using extensive data collected from Orange County (OC), California, we developed a detailed agent-based model to represent patient movement among all OC hospitals. Experiments simulated MRSA outbreaks in various wards, institutions, and regions. Sensitivity analysis varied lengths of stay, intraward transmission coefficients (β), MRSA loss rate, probability of patient transfer or readmission, and time to readmission. results. Each simulated outbreak eventually affected all of the hospitals in the network, with effects depending on the outbreak size and location. Increasing MRSA prevalence at a single hospital (from 5% to 15%) resulted in a 2.9% average increase in relative prevalence at all other hospitals (ranging from no effect to 46.4%). Single-hospital intensive care unit outbreaks (modeled increase from 5% to 15%) caused a 1.4% average relative increase in all other OC hospitals (ranging from no effect to 12.7%). conclusion. MRSA outbreaks may rarely be confined to a single hospital but instead may affect all of the hospitals in a region. This suggests that prevention and control strategies and policies should account for the interconnectedness of health care facilities.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)562-572
Number of pages11
JournalInfection Control and Hospital Epidemiology
Volume32
Issue number6
DOIs
StatePublished - Jun 2011

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Epidemiology
  • Microbiology (medical)
  • Infectious Diseases

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    Lee, B. Y., McGlone, S. M., Wong, K. F., Yilmaz, S. L., Avery, T. R., Song, Y., Christie, R., Eubank, S., Brown, S. T., Epstein, J. M., Parker, J. I., Burke, D. S., Platt, R., & Huang, S. S. (2011). Modeling the spread of methicillin-resistant staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) outbreaks throughout the hospitals in Orange County, California. Infection Control and Hospital Epidemiology, 32(6), 562-572. https://doi.org/10.1086/660014