@article{82045a2889a840f8b147e864cfb6542a,
title = "Modelling the medium-term dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in England in the Omicron era",
abstract = "England has experienced a heavy burden of COVID-19, with multiple waves of SARS-CoV-2 transmission since early 2020 and high infection levels following the emergence and spread of Omicron variants since late 2021. In response to rising Omicron cases, booster vaccinations were accelerated and offered to all adults in England. Using a model fitted to more than 2 years of epidemiological data, we project potential dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 infections, hospital admissions and deaths in England to December 2022. We consider key uncertainties including future behavioural change and waning immunity and assess the effectiveness of booster vaccinations in mitigating SARS-CoV-2 disease burden between October 2021 and December 2022. If no new variants emerge, SARS-CoV-2 transmission is expected to decline, with low levels remaining in the coming months. The extent to which projected SARS-CoV-2 transmission resurges later in 2022 depends largely on assumptions around waning immunity and to some extent, behaviour, and seasonality.",
author = "{Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases COVID-19 Working Group} and Barnard, {Rosanna C.} and Davies, {Nicholas G.} and Munday, {James D.} and Rachel Lowe and Knight, {Gwenan M.} and Leclerc, {Quentin J.} and Tully, {Damien C.} and David Hodgson and Rachael Pung and Joel Hellewell and Mihaly Koltai and David Simons and Kaja Abbas and Kucharski, {Adam J.} and Procter, {Simon R.} and Sandmann, {Frank G.} and Pearson, {Carl A.B.} and Kiesha Prem and Alicia Showering and Meakin, {Sophie R.} and Kathleen O{\textquoteright}Reilly and McCarthy, {Ciara V.} and Matthew Quaife and Wong, {Kerry L.M.} and Yalda Jafari and Deol, {Arminder K.} and Houben, {Rein M.G.J.} and Charlie Diamond and Thibaut Jombart and Villabona-Arenas, {C. Julian} and William Waites and Eggo, {Rosalind M.} and Akira Endo and Gibbs, {Hamish P.} and Petra Klepac and Jack Williams and Quilty, {Billy J.} and Oliver Brady and Emery, {Jon C.} and Atkins, {Katherine E.} and Chapman, {Lloyd A.C.} and Katharine Sherratt and Sam Abbott and Bosse, {Nikos I.} and Paul Mee and Sebastian Funk and Jiayao Lei and Yang Liu and Stefan Flasche and Mark Jit",
note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2022, The Author(s).",
year = "2022",
month = dec,
doi = "10.1038/s41467-022-32404-y",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "13",
journal = "Nature communications",
issn = "2041-1723",
publisher = "Nature Research",
number = "1",
}