TY - JOUR

T1 - Nonparametric forecasting of low-dimensional dynamical systems

AU - Berry, Tyrus

AU - Giannakis, Dimitrios

AU - Harlim, John

N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2015 American Physical Society.

PY - 2015/3/19

Y1 - 2015/3/19

N2 - This paper presents a nonparametric modeling approach for forecasting stochastic dynamical systems on low-dimensional manifolds. The key idea is to represent the discrete shift maps on a smooth basis which can be obtained by the diffusion maps algorithm. In the limit of large data, this approach converges to a Galerkin projection of the semigroup solution to the underlying dynamics on a basis adapted to the invariant measure. This approach allows one to quantify uncertainties (in fact, evolve the probability distribution) for nontrivial dynamical systems with equation-free modeling. We verify our approach on various examples, ranging from an inhomogeneous anisotropic stochastic differential equation on a torus, the chaotic Lorenz three-dimensional model, and the Niño-3.4 data set which is used as a proxy of the El Niño Southern Oscillation.

AB - This paper presents a nonparametric modeling approach for forecasting stochastic dynamical systems on low-dimensional manifolds. The key idea is to represent the discrete shift maps on a smooth basis which can be obtained by the diffusion maps algorithm. In the limit of large data, this approach converges to a Galerkin projection of the semigroup solution to the underlying dynamics on a basis adapted to the invariant measure. This approach allows one to quantify uncertainties (in fact, evolve the probability distribution) for nontrivial dynamical systems with equation-free modeling. We verify our approach on various examples, ranging from an inhomogeneous anisotropic stochastic differential equation on a torus, the chaotic Lorenz three-dimensional model, and the Niño-3.4 data set which is used as a proxy of the El Niño Southern Oscillation.

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U2 - 10.1103/PhysRevE.91.032915

DO - 10.1103/PhysRevE.91.032915

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:84961291500

SN - 1063-651X

VL - 91

JO - Physical Review E - Statistical Physics, Plasmas, Fluids, and Related Interdisciplinary Topics

JF - Physical Review E - Statistical Physics, Plasmas, Fluids, and Related Interdisciplinary Topics

IS - 3

M1 - 032915

ER -