Predicting irregular individual movement following frequent mid-level disasters using location data from Smartphones

Takahiro Yabe, Kota Tsubouchi, Akihito Sudo, Yoshihide Sekimoto

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Abstract

Mid-level disasters that frequently occur, such as typhoons and earthquakes, heavily affect human activities in urban areas by causing severe congestion and economic loss. Predicting the irregular movement of individuals following such disasters is crucial for managing urban systems. Past survey results show that mid-level disasters do not force many individuals to evacuate away from their homes, but do cause irregular movement by significantly delaying the movement timings, resulting in severe congestion in urban transportation. We propose a novel method that predicts such irregularity of individuals' movements in several mid-level disasters using various types of features including the victims' usual movement patterns, disaster information, and geospatial information of victims' locations. Using real GPS data of 1 million people in Tokyo, we show that our method can predict mobility delay with high accuracy.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Title of host publication24th ACM SIGSPATIAL International Conference on Advances in Geographic Information Systems, ACM SIGSPATIAL GIS 2016
EditorsMatthias Renz, Mohamed Ali, Shawn Newsam, Matthias Renz, Siva Ravada, Goce Trajcevski
PublisherAssociation for Computing Machinery
ISBN (Electronic)9781450345897
DOIs
StatePublished - Oct 31 2016
Event24th ACM SIGSPATIAL International Conference on Advances in Geographic Information Systems, ACM SIGSPATIAL GIS 2016 - Burlingame, United States
Duration: Oct 31 2016Nov 3 2016

Publication series

NameGIS: Proceedings of the ACM International Symposium on Advances in Geographic Information Systems

Conference

Conference24th ACM SIGSPATIAL International Conference on Advances in Geographic Information Systems, ACM SIGSPATIAL GIS 2016
Country/TerritoryUnited States
CityBurlingame
Period10/31/1611/3/16

Keywords

  • Disaster alert
  • Frequent disasters
  • GPS data
  • L1-regularized logistic regression
  • Urban dynamics

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Earth-Surface Processes
  • Computer Science Applications
  • Modeling and Simulation
  • Computer Graphics and Computer-Aided Design
  • Information Systems

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