Randomly projected additive Gaussian processes for regression

Gaussian processes (GPS) provide flexible distributions over functions, with inductive biases controlled by a kernel. However, in many applications Gaussian processes can struggle with even moderate input dimensionality. Learning a low dimensional projection can help alleviate this curse of dimensionality, but introduces many trainable hyperparameters, which can be cumbersome, especially in the small data regime. We use additive sums of kernels for GP regression, where each kernel operates on a different random projection of its inputs. Surprisingly, we find that as the number of random projections increases, the predictive performance of this approach quickly converges to the performance of a kernel operating on the original full dimensional inputs, over a wide range of data sets, even if we are projecting into a single dimension. As a consequence, many problems can remarkably be reduced to one dimensional input spaces, without learning a transformation. We prove this convergence and its rate, and additionally propose a deterministic approach that converges more quickly than purely random projections. Moreover, we demonstrate our approach can achieve faster inference and improved predictive accuracy for high-dimensional inputs compared to kernels in the original input space.