Re-examining economic shocks and civil conflict

Edward Miguel, Shanker Satyanath

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

    Abstract

    Miguel, Satyanath, and Ernest Sergenti (2004), henceforth MSS, show that economic growth is negatively related to civil conflict in Africa, using annual rainfall variation as an IV for growth. Antonio Ciccone (2011) argues that thanks to rainfall's mean-reverting nature, rainfall levels are preferable to annual changes. We make three points. First, MSS's findings hold using rainfall levels as instruments. Second, Ciccone (2011) does not provide theoretical justification for preferring rainfall levels. Third, the first-stage relationship between rainfall and growth is weaker after 2000, suggesting that alternative instruments are needed when studying recent conflicts. We highlight the accumulating microeconomic evidence that adverse economic shocks lead to political violence.

    Original languageEnglish (US)
    Pages (from-to)228-232
    Number of pages5
    JournalAmerican Economic Journal: Applied Economics
    Volume3
    Issue number4
    DOIs
    StatePublished - Oct 2011

    ASJC Scopus subject areas

    • Economics, Econometrics and Finance(all)

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