Real-time traffic diversion model: Conceptual approach

The development of advanced traffic-management systems as a major component of intelligent vehicle/highway systems is targeted to address the complex problem of urban traffic congestion. The strategy includes real-time diversion of traffic during congestion-causing events, by making efficient use of the available capacities in the highway network. A conceptual framework for executing realtime diversions is presented in this paper. The strategy envisages on-line control and management of traffic through control centers and their surveillance equipment. The approach relies on real-time traffic data to detect incidents and develop rerouting plants to benefit motorists. For this purpose, a model has been developed to estimate traveler destinations from traffic data. The dynamic nature of the problem is captured through a traffic assignment/simulationm odel, which can predict traffic conditions that would prevail in the alternate routes. A knowledgebased expert system is also proposed to estimate traffic delays, and to evaluate and choose alternate routes. This research is being applied to the northern Virginia urban area as a case study.